2025 Oscars predictions: A tough call

UPDATED — I've been nailing Oscars Best Picture predictions since 2011, but this year is the toughest call yet, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. For once, there’s no obvious frontrunner, no single film towering over the rest. Instead, we have a field where almost any nominee could take the prize, and it wouldn’t feel wrong — well, except for Emilia Pérez.

Conclave will win. It has the kind of prestige and craftsmanship the Academy loves. A gripping thriller set in the Vatican, it blends high-stakes drama with a meticulously crafted narrative and musical score that will keep you hooked from start to finish. With major wins at the BAFTAs and SAG Awards, it has the industry backing to go all the way. But more than that, it just feels like a Best Picture winner, one that will age well and fit neatly into the Academy’s legacy.

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Anora is the wildcard. It’s fresh, unhinged, and feels like the kind of movie that shakes up a race like this. With strong critics’ support and some major directing wins, it has the momentum to surprise. If the Academy leans toward rewarding bold, unexpected storytelling, Anora could pull off the upset.

Nickel Boys is the film that should win. A searing adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, it’s the most urgent and emotionally resonant film in the lineup. It tackles systemic injustice with brutal honesty through POV cinematography that immerses the audience in its harrowing reality without feeling like a gimmick.

And then there’s Sing Sing, the one that should have been nominated. A raw, deeply human story of redemption, it was one of the year’s best films but failed to break into the Academy’s traditional prestige mold. I love its grainy camerawork, the raw intensity of its performances, and how it’s the only film of 2024 that will have you emotional all the way through — literally up to its unexpectedly gut-wrenching end credits.

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With Best Picture this close, the other categories follow suit. Here’s where I stand on the rest of the major races:

DIRECTOR

Will Win: Sean Baker (“Anora”)

Should Win: Sean Baker (“Anora”)

 

ACTOR

Will Win: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)

Should Win: Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)

 

ACTRESS

Will Win: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)

Should Win: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)

Should Win: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)

Should Win: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: “Anora” (Sean Baker)

Should Win: “A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg)

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: “Conclave” (Peter Straughn)

Should Win: “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: “The Wild Robot” (Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann)

Should Win: “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: “The Brutalist” (Lol Crawley)

Should Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

 

EDITING

Will Win: “Conclave” (Nick Emerson)

Should Win: “Conclave” (Nick Emerson)

 

SOUND

Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)

Should Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)

Should Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: “The Brutalist” (Daniel Blumberg)

Should Win: “Conclave” (Focus Features)

 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Will Win: “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)

Should Win: “Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)

 

— WALPHS.com